When do you expect human-level AI to arrive, and why?

For intellectual ability, I see the level reaching the point where it can replace 90% of human intellectual labor within 2 years, and for physical ability, I see 5 to 10 years. I have consistently thought that human cognitive function is not all that remarkable. And no matter how much I imagine scenarios where several Big Tech companies collapse under high interest rates, the self-improvement of LLMs that has already been set in motion seems likely to reach an extremely high level.

I may be underestimating the complexity of human cognition, but of all the cognitive mechanisms I have encountered so far, I have not seen any complexity or efficiency that would be overwhelming. If anything, the more I learn, the more only its weaknesses catch my eye.